NFL Week 4 picks straight up against the spread: Do Chiefs or Raiders taste defeat first? – Here’s a humanized, approximately 1,000-word version based on the latest Week 4 information and published picks. The Chiefs-Raiders matchup is especially intriguing because both teams enter at 3-0, while the current spread has Kansas City favored by 4.5 points. NFL Week 4 Picks Straight Up, Against the Spread: Do Chiefs or Raiders Taste Defeat First?
The NFL is officially entering October, and Week 4 has arrived with one matchup that feels much bigger than an ordinary Sunday game. The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders are both 3-0, meaning one of the AFC West rivals will leave Allegiant Stadium with its first loss of the season. 
That alone makes Chiefs-Raiders the game everyone will be watching. Kansas City has the familiarity, the recent history and Patrick Mahomes. Las Vegas, meanwhile, has something it has not had in quite some time: genuine momentum. The Raiders have opened the season undefeated and followed their first two wins with an impressive 35-27 comeback victory over New Orleans in Week 3.
The betting market currently lists Kansas City as a 4.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 47.5. FanDuel’s numberFire model gives the Chiefs a 65% projected win probability, while other analysts have pointed toward the Raiders as an attractive team against the spread. So, who gets the first blemish? Let’s break down the biggest Week 4 storylines.
Chiefs vs. Raiders: The Game of the Week
It is still difficult to bet against Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won two of its first three games by comfortable margins, and the Chiefs enter this matchup without the early-season concerns that surrounded Mahomes after his return from ACL surgery. His play has improved as the season has progressed, and Kansas City looks increasingly comfortable with its offensive identity.
The Raiders, however, have quickly become more than a feel-good 3-0 story. Their performance through three weeks has produced convincing statistical evidence. Yahoo Sports notes that Las Vegas ranks ninth in DVOA, with the defense ranking ninth and special teams fifth. The Raiders have also been strong in EPA per play allowed.
Kirk Cousins has provided stability at quarterback, while Brock Bowers returned to the lineup in Week 3 and immediately made an impact. Bowers caught 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against New Orleans, giving the Raiders another dangerous option in the passing game.
Historically, Kansas City has enjoyed considerable success in this rivalry. With Mahomes as its starter, the Chiefs are 13-2 against the Raiders. But history only tells part of the story. This Las Vegas team has a different coaching staff, a reshaped roster and a completely different level of confidence.
Straight-up pick: Chiefs
Kansas City remains the safer choice to win the game outright. Mahomes and the Chiefs have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to handle high-pressure AFC West games, and their overall consistency makes them difficult to dismiss.
Against the spread: Raiders +4.5
This is where the decision becomes much closer. Las Vegas has covered the spread in all three games this season, while Kansas City has covered twice. The Raiders do not necessarily need to win to reward an ATS pick. A four-point game, for example, would be enough. Playing at home also gives Las Vegas an important advantage in what could be a highly emotional atmosphere.
Why the Raiders Can Keep It Close
The biggest argument for Las Vegas is balance. The Raiders are not relying exclusively on one player or one side of the football. Their defense has played well, their special teams have contributed, and Cousins has given the offense dependable quarterback play. That makes the team harder to knock out of games. Bowers could also be one of the most important players on the field. His Week 3 return immediately gave the Raiders’ passing attack another dimension, and Kansas City will have to account for him throughout the afternoon.
There is also the simple reality of playing at home. The Raiders have not had many opportunities in recent years to host a game carrying this much significance. A 3-0 team welcoming a 3-0 division rival creates an atmosphere that should make Allegiant Stadium one of the loudest buildings in the league. That does not guarantee a Las Vegas victory, but it could make the difference between a comfortable Chiefs win and a competitive fourth quarter.
The Rest of the Week 4 Picture
Chiefs-Raiders is the headline, but Week 4 offers several other fascinating matchups. The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots with Buffalo entering as a significant favorite. The Bills are also one of the league’s remaining unbeaten teams, making the game another opportunity for a contender to maintain its perfect start.
The San Francisco 49ers, another 3-0 team, host the Denver Broncos. San Francisco is listed as a 2.5-point favorite, while the Broncos enter at 2-1 after defeating the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3.
The Seattle Seahawks host the winless Los Angeles Chargers and are currently favored by seven points. Los Angeles has struggled offensively, averaging only 14.7 points per game through three weeks, while Seattle’s defense has allowed just 16.7 points per game.
The Philadelphia Eagles also face an interesting test against the Los Angeles Rams. Although Philadelphia enters at 2-1, the Rams are capable of making this a difficult road matchup, particularly after their competitive start to the season. NFL Week 4 picks straight up against the spread
Straight-Up Picks vs. ATS Picks
One of the easiest mistakes to make during an NFL season is treating a straight-up pick and an against-the-spread pick as the same thing. They are not. A team can lose the game and still cover the spread. That distinction matters enormously in Chiefs-Raiders. Kansas City can win by three points, for example, and still fail to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. That is why Las Vegas has appeal against the number even if Kansas City is the team to win the game.
Several published analysts have reached a similar conclusion. Yahoo Sports’ Frank Schwab selected Raiders +4.5, arguing that Las Vegas has shown enough quality to avoid getting blown out at home. Covers also leaned toward Las Vegas at +4.5. Other analysts have gone in the opposite direction. The Los Angeles Times’ Sam Farmer picked the Chiefs to defeat the Raiders outright, while FanDuel’s model also projects Kansas City to win. That split tells the story perfectly: Kansas City is still viewed as the more established team, but Las Vegas has earned enough respect to make the spread uncomfortable. NFL Week 4 picks straight up against the spread
Final Week 4 Pick
The most interesting part of this game is that both sides can make a legitimate case. The Chiefs have Mahomes, a long history of success in the AFC West and the experience that comes from playing in countless high-pressure games. The Raiders have home-field advantage, an undefeated record, a productive defense and a quarterback who has helped stabilize their offense. For a straight-up selection, Kansas City Chiefs is the pick.
Against the spread, however, Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 is the more interesting side. The Raiders have already shown they can compete, and there is enough evidence to believe this game could remain close into the fourth quarter. A reasonable projected outcome would be something like Chiefs 27, Raiders 24.
If that happens, Kansas City leaves Las Vegas still undefeated while the Raiders suffer their first loss—but Las Vegas covers the spread.And that is exactly what makes Week 4 so fascinating. One team will taste defeat for the first time, but the Raiders do not necessarily need to win to prove that their 3-0 start is legitimate. Sunday will provide the clearest early-season test yet of just how real this new version of the Las Vegas Raiders might be. NFL Week 4 picks straight up against the spread
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