The College Football Playoff race for ACC, SEC teams got shakeup after Week 10 – We at Overreaction HQ have to be careful not to delve too deeply into the proverbial weeds while trying to find potential topics for investigation on a particular college football weekend. After all, a book the size of “War and Peace” could be filled with analysis on every single game in the landscape.
As the season approaches its final month, we will thus attempt to confine ourselves to broad concerns pertaining to the College Football Playoff contenders. The most noteworthy outcomes of Week 10 occurred in ACC country, where we will start this edition of the top five overreactions.
There are no at-large candidates in the ACC.
The conference now has no teams in the top 10 of the US LBM Coaches Poll after Georgia Tech and Miami’s defeats to unranked opponents. Naturally, we stress that the polls are not formally taken into account by the CFP committee, although they frequently have a fairly similar appearance. Therefore, it would seem that the league’s chances of gaining several representatives into the 12-team playoff would be severely harmed by those outcomes.
Though Virginia, currently the top-ranked team in the league at No. 11, most likely will have to use the automatic route to get there, it’s not completely out of the question. Miami has a little chance of winning the conference title because they are currently two games behind the league lead. Ironically, though, if the Hurricanes reach 10-2 as a result of their Notre Dame victory back in Week 1, they may still have the strongest at-large case. A non-conference victory over Georgia in the regular-season finale would be required for Georgia Tech to have an argument as well.
However, there is another club in the league that no one is discussing that may be able to put together an at-large resume in the closing stages. Pittsburgh is that team. At the end of September, the Panthers were 2-2 and all but forgotten. Since then, they have won five straight games and have only suffered one conference loss. They have a chance to play Georgia Tech and Miami head-to-head at the end of the season, but first they have a chance to play Notre Dame. They might still be eliminated from the league championship game even if they run the table since they would forfeit a possible tiebreaker against Louisville, and their entire body of work will be negatively impacted by the devastating loss to Backyard Brawl opponent West Virginia. However, a 10-2 record with those victories would at least need to be taken into account.
Oregon is this year’s Indiana?
The most contentious addition to the playoff field last season was Indiana, an 11-1 team in 2024 with no terrible defeats but no spectacular wins. This year’s Hoosiers, who could be even better, won’t be the subject of such debate, but will there be additional instances this year?
To be clear, it is now established that a power conference team with an 11-1 record will not be excluded. However, that won’t stop supporters of competing initiatives from challenging the real accomplishments of such a team. It’s possible that a club from the Hoosiers’ own league might be the target of such hatred. Strangely, it’s a squad that everyone agrees is Indiana’s greatest victory to date. The College Football Playoff race for ACC
The Oregon analogy isn’t entirely accurate. Even if the Ducks don’t finish in the Top 25 when the field is established, their record will feature victories in November versus Iowa, Southern California, and Washington—all of whom will have been ranked at some point during the season. Nevertheless, there will undoubtedly be grievances from the surrounding community of a 9-3 SEC team that had a more demanding schedule.
Or, well, Miss?
Heck, it could even be another member of the SEC who is treated unfairly. The Rebels missed the majority of the other teams in the top half of the rankings this season due to the whims of the conference’s scheduling computer. The Georgia defeat is scarcely detrimental, and the Oklahoma victory should endure. In the same way that Ohio State’s lone defeat sent Indiana to the at-large pool the previous year, Ole Miss’s lone loss could prevent them from making it to the championship game. The College Football Playoff race for ACC
Once more, an 11-1 team—especially one from the SEC—will not miss the playoffs, especially if they defeat a 9-3 or 10-2 team in the same conference. But what if the Rebels arrive late at Florida or Mississippi State? We accept the intense debate that drives this sport as a natural aspect of the landscape.
Texas’s bubbling Red River
Alright, we’ve already spent a lot of phrases criticizing those who adhere to the “just means more” school of thought, so let’s examine a few particular instances. The league’s two newest members, who brought their legendary Red River rivalry with them, appear headed in that path, and there will be a number of 9-3 contenders. Let’s see how they compare. The College Football Playoff race for ACC
We’ll start with the Longhorns, who would benefit from the outcome of their head-to-head matchup with Oklahoma. The loss at Florida is more severe than the one at Ohio State. If Texas defeats last-place Arkansas, it can split its next two games—at Georgia and at home against Texas A&M—to go to 9-3. It would probably be sufficient to win any of those, but losing both would put the ‘horns on the outside. They might return to Atlanta if they manage to sweep those difficult games, but considering their many near-misses, it seems unlikely.
Oklahoma’s bubbling Red River
The circumstances facing the Sooners are a little more challenging. They are probably restricted to the at-large pool unless there is a great deal of instability in the standings above them because both of their defeats were in conference and the Longhorns and Ole Miss have tiebreakers against them. In a few weeks, they will have the opportunity to produce some of that themselves at Alabama, but even if they lose in Tuscaloosa, they can still reach 9-3 with home wins over Missouri and LSU.
Is that sufficient? It would rely on who else is around on the board. Depending on the contenders, a victory over Michigan outside of the league could be crucial. The bottom line? In many college towns, there will be a lot of drama in the upcoming month. The College Football Playoff race for ACC
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